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Bristlemoon Capital
Everything we have picked from this writer, newest first.
ai Google’s AI Return on Investment
Alphabet’s $132 billion AI capex produced an estimated 49% post-tax incremental ROIC once only in-service assets are counted, versus a…
Bristlemoon Capital
data centers Bristlemoon June 2026 Quarterly Letter
Bristlemoon Global Fund gained 1.9% in Q2 2026 and argues ASML’s EUV shipments will beat 2027–28 consensus amid a wafer-fab-equipment capex…
Bristlemoon Capital
industrials The Trucking Bottleneck
U.S. ex-fuel van spot rates rose 30% year over year in May 2026 and nearly 50% including fuel surcharges, as multiyear capacity exits…
Bristlemoon Capital
ai Infineon Technologies (IFX GY): Power Overwhelming
Infineon’s power semiconductors stand to benefit from AI data centers shifting to 800VDC power delivery, though its sharp rerating to…
Bristlemoon Capital
hedge funds Do You Dance While the Music Is Playing?
Multi-strategy hedge funds’ 444% leverage and market-neutral mandates have amplified momentum into semiconductors while making software and…
Bristlemoon Capital
aerospace & defense Montana Aerospace (AERO SW) – Riding the OEM Coattails
Montana Aerospace supplies single-source aerostructure components to Boeing and Airbus, with Aerostructures revenue growing 11.5% annually…
Bristlemoon Capital
hedge funds Bristlemoon March 2026 Quarterly Letter
Bristlemoon Global Fund lost 25.5% in Q1 2026 as valuation multiples compressed, then adjusted positioning for the Iran War and reviewed…
Bristlemoon Capital
aerospace & defense Is the Airline Industry Really That Bad? – AerCap and A Case of Sandbagged Guidance
AerCap sells aircraft at 2x book value and repurchases stock near 1x book, cutting shares outstanding 31% in three years.
Bristlemoon Capital
ai Adobe Inc (ADBE): slowly, then all at once
Adobe’s sub-20x forward GAAP P/E reflects AI disruption fears, with the investment case hinging on whether Digital Media’s creative…
Bristlemoon Capital
business models Timee CEO x Bristlemoon Webcast
Timee founder Ryo Ogawa discusses Japan’s spot-work marketplace, which matches employers with 12.7 million registered flexible workers,…
Bristlemoon Capital
hedge funds Bristlemoon December 2025 Quarterly Letter
Bristlemoon Global Fund lost 6.2% in the December 2025 quarter and details new positions in Adobe, Baltic Classifieds, Timee, and Floor &…
Bristlemoon Capital
aerospace & defense TransDigm (TDG) – The King of Aerospace Private Equity
TransDigm built a $72 billion aerospace-components consolidator through 90 acquisitions, delivering 23.1% annualized stock returns since…
Bristlemoon Capital
business models Hemnet – Broken Moat or Misunderstood Monopoly?
Hemnet’s Swedish listings monopoly has fallen from SEK420 to about SEK160 as growth slows, leaving investors to judge whether its 90% share…
Bristlemoon Capital
ai Framing the AI Bubble
AI capex demand, Nvidia’s $500 billion Blackwell and Rubin order book, and TSMC and ASML supply constraints frame the durability of the AI…
Bristlemoon Capital
hedge funds Bristlemoon September 2025 Quarterly Letter
Bristlemoon Global Fund returned 5.0% in the September quarter, led by AppLovin, ASML and Alphabet, while reaffirming its thesis on PAR…
Bristlemoon Capital
asset management Starting a Fund – One Year In
Bristlemoon Capital’s first year shows why fund founders need conviction, autonomy and enough AUM to build a self-funding investment…
Bristlemoon Capital
financials Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) – Pricing Power Impaired?
Fair Isaac raised FICO Score royalties from roughly $0.50–$0.60 in 2022 to $4.95 in 2025, drawing regulatory scrutiny over its…
Bristlemoon Capital
business models Bristlemoon Capital on Business Breakdowns – MercadoLibre (MELI)
MercadoLibre’s Daniel Wu discusses MELI’s Latin American e-commerce operations, fintech business model, growth opportunities and risks on…
Bristlemoon Capital
advertising Meta Platforms (META) 2Q25: SuperMetalligence
Meta’s 22% Q2 revenue growth and AI-driven ad engagement support its core business, while planned 2026 capex of roughly $100 billion…
Bristlemoon Capital
hedge funds Bristlemoon June 2025 Quarterly Letter
Bristlemoon Global Fund returned -0.3% in Q2 2025, hurt by tariff bearishness and concentrated-position volatility; it initiated APi Group,…
Bristlemoon Capital